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Table 10.2 Broad research goals related to climate and climate variability from the World Climate
Research Programme (WCRP) and US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), as examples of
''umbrella'' goals
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Goal 1 Develop the fundamental scientific understanding of the physical climate system and climate
processes to determine to what extent climate can be predicted and the extent of human
influences on climate
Goal 2 Find quantitative answers to climate and the range of natural climate variability
Goal 3 Establish the basis for predictions of global and regional climate variations and of changes in
the frequency and severity of extreme events
Goal 4 Address forcefully outstanding issues of scientific uncertainty in the Earth's climate system
(i.e. transport and storage of heat by the ocean; global energy and hydrological cycle;
formation of clouds and their effect on radiative transfer; role of the cryosphere in climate
change)
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
Goal 1 Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its
natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and
change
Goal 2 Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related
systems
Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systemsmay
change in the future
Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural andmanaged ecosystems and
human systems to climate and related global changes
Goal 5
Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and oppor-
tunities related to climate variability and change
www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.htm;
www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/about.htm
(Chapter
6
). Figure
10.1
(from IPCC
2001
) is a well-known summary of the
major components causing forcing in the global climate system, and indicates
the level of scientific understanding associated with each. Only forcing from the
greenhouse gases, where major understanding has improved strongly over the
past 20 years, is ranked high. The role of ozone, both in the stratosphere and
troposphere, is listed as medium. For all other radiative factors, the level of
understanding is listed as very low. Radiative forcing is also critical in under-
standing the link between climate, climate variability, and other components
of the Earth's environment. These include biogeochemical cycles, ocean-
atmosphere and land-atmosphere interactions, and sources and sinks of atmo-
spheric components. Full understanding requires a multi-disciplinary approach,
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