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4. Decision making in the energy sector with the help of multiple criteria
evaluation methods
A decision support system is treated as a chance, in view of the priorities, to select the best
alternative from a set of alternatives framed or offered by the system. A typical decision-
making procedure includes four main phases (Booty & Wong, 2010; Bergey et al., 2003):
Decision-making process
4. Verification and
implementation
3. Evaluation and
selection
1. Framing
•
setting the
goals
•
identifying
the problems
•
researching
•
collecting the
data
2. Designing
•
identifying the
options
•
identifying the
criteria for the
options
•
identifying the
criteria weights
•
analysing the
alternatives
•
identifying the
feedback
•
identifying the
variation of the
solutions in time
•
analysing the
sensitivity
•
implementing the
solution
•
analysing the
models
•
ranking the
alternatives
•
selecting the
best alternative
Fig. 5. Phases in decision-making
Each decision has a different context, thus we must consider:
the goals;
the object in question and its environment;
the criteria defining the efficiency of our choice;
the variables of the solution;
the restrictions and risks.
The decision-making process starts from
goal setting
and problem identification. When our
decision-making concerns the energy sector, the first and foremost step is defining the
development priorities or the strategic goals of the development in the energy sector. The
goal setting
is of vital importance to make right decisions. The strategic goals must be clear
and have explicit wording, they must be specific, measurable, matched, realistic, and time-
dependent. Sometimes it is best to classify goals by their level. For instance, the Green Paper
separates primary, interim and direct goals (Commission of the European..., 2006), but in
real life primary and direct goals are more frequent. Primary goals are usually defined by
variables at the strategic or higher level (degree of economic growth, social cohesion or
sustainable development). These goals may be set forth in the White Paper, national
strategies of economic development, and in other national strategic documents of
importance. Direct goals are directly related to political instruments, programmes, or
projects. Considering the suggested goals one must focus and select the criteria which
contribute to direct—urgent—goals. These goals are seen in national energy strategies or
development programmes for national energy sectors.
The next phase—
designing
—includes setting of the options, which may be handy while
seeking the set goals. The options may include ranking of energy development scenarios or
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