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In-Depth Information
Scenario
Analysis
Mahmoud et a.l
(2009)
Integrated Modeling
Approach
Liu et al. (2008)
Shared Vision Planning
Werrick and Whipple (1994
)
(1) Build a team: identify circles of
influence: planners, stakeholder
representatives, agency leads, advocacy
groups & decision-makers.
Identify Problems and Opportunities
--
--
(1) Identify and formulate the
important focus questions,
using science and stakeholder
input
(2) Develop Objectives and Metrics for
Evaluation
--
(2) Define scenarios based on
focus questions and based on
key external forcings,
important and highly
uncertain
(3) Describe current status quo: what
happens if we do nothing?
Scenario
Definition
(4) Formulate Alternatives to the status
quo, through broad participation
(3) Develop conceptual basis
for numerical models to be
built and generate data for
scenarios
Scenario
Construction
(4) Develop modeling system,
calibration and validation.
Adjust conceptual model
(5) Evaluate alternatives and develop
study team recommendations (Compare
alternatives against the status quo, and
evaluate them with the metrics and
indicators previously developed.)
(5) Construct scenarios by
deriving model inputs and
collecting outputs from
model runs
Scenario
Analysis
(6) Perform indicator analysis
on scenario outputs:
sensitivity analysis to
understand main controls
and uncertainty sources.
Compare scenarios
Scenario
Assessment
(6) Institutionalize Plan (ensure
recommendations will be acted upon,
requires written agreement to act
according to the findings regardless of
political and administrative leaderships)
--
--
Risk
Management
(7)Informed Decision-making
(7) Implement and update the Plan
(~adaptive management
(8) Monitoring & post-audit Monitoring
(1) Repeat, new cycle Repeat
Table 1. Comparison of the approaches from Liu et al. (2008), Mahmoud et al. (2009) and
Werrick and Whipple (1994).
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