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very user-friendly DSS tool for decision-makers and the public. Indeed, system dynamics
DSS have recently been used to support basin scale mid and long range planning, and
management (Tidwell et al. 2004; Yalcin and Lansey. 2004; Kang and Lansey, 2011). Two
integrative system dynamics case studies to support planning and decision making can be
found in the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, and in The Upper San Pedro River in
Arizona. Both basins face severe water management challenges and need to find solutions to
balance existing human and environmental demands with existing water supply.
In the Upper San Pedro, where human extractions from the basin aquifer threaten a
Riparian Natural Conservation Area (SPRNCA), a mandate was passed by the U.S.
Congress summoning the agencies and stakeholders in the basin to find a sustainable
solution by 2011. In addition to the mandate, the possibility of the main economic motor of
the basin (Fort Huachuca, a military base) being moved to another region if the water
sustainability problems weren't solved, was a strong incentive to act. The development of
the DSS by faculty and students at The University of Arizona benefitted from strong science
contributions and the collaboration with numerous local stakeholders and agencies
conducting research in the basin. The model allows users to select different packages of
water conservation measures to be implemented through time and space in the basin. After
each simulation, estimates are obtained regarding the impacts and improvements of the
selected measures on the water budget, groundwater levels in key locations, and other
parameters such as the costs of implementing such measures. The model is able to represent
impacts on the groundwater system and the riparian area that depend on socio-economic
profile for the basin and on the water conservation measures applied by the user. Linearized
relationships between groundwater pumping and aquifer water levels were derived from a
state-of-the-art groundwater model of the basin - a detailed physical model with higher
spatial resolution - and included in the DSS for computational efficiency. The interested
reader will find detailed information of the development of the San Pedro basin DSS model
in Yalcin and Lansey (2004) and in Kang and Lansey (2011).
The Middle Rio Grande DSS model, developed by Sandia National Labs in collaboration
with The University of Arizona, also benefitted from multi-resolution modeling. However
the inclusion of information from detailed physical models was done differently. From a
detailed high-resolution hydrologic model of the basin, a simplified one was derived
lumping cells with similar attributes and hydraulic behavior. From a complex model with
more than 100,000 cells, a simple one was produced with only 51 compartments (~cells) and
sufficient accuracy to capture the overall behavior of the complex model, thus providing
estimates at a level useful for policy analysis (Roach and Tidwell, 2009). As expressed by
Passell et al (2003): “
this systems-level planning model draws heavily on the inferences and results
of many other more sophisticated models focused on particular aspects of the basin”.
4. The sustainable path bridging science and decision-making
In general, scientists, academicians and some practitioners are convinced that numerical
models are indeed a good tool to support decision-making, but the reality is that the
adoption of modeling tools by policy and decision-makers is not standard practice. The
main reason behind this fact is that, being extremely busy; managers, policy-makers and
elected representatives are unlikely to use a model or tool they are unfamiliar with,
regardless of how good it may be. Further, they will generally not use such models if they
don't feel they understand how the models have been developed, and in what ways the
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