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In-Depth Information
Year
Four dimension
GM(1,1)
Five dimension
GM(1,1)
Six dimension GM(1,1)
Actual
trend
Value/%
Predicted
Value
/%
Predicted
Value
/%
Predicted Value
/%
Error
(%)
Error
(%)
Error
(%)
2006
32.36
31.97
1.21
31.71
2.01
31.43
2.87
2007
34.46
33.57
2.58
33.13
3.86
32.69
5.14
2008
36.68
35.25
3.90
34.61
5.64
34.01
7.28
Table 8. Predicted mechanical sowing value and analysis of errors
Four dimension
GM(1,1)
Five dimension
GM(1,1)
Six dimension
GM(1,1)
Actual
trend
Value
/%
Year
Predicted
Value
/%
Erro
r
(%)
Predicted
Value
/%
Erro
r
(%)
Predicted
Value
/%
Erro
r
(%)
2006
25.43
24.94
1.42
24.65
3.07
24.35
4.25
2007
28.02
27.02
3.57
26.50
5.42
26.02
7.14
2008
30.69
29.27
4.63
28.49
7.17
27.80
9.42
Table 9. Predicted Mechanical Harvesting Value and Analysis of Errors
Mechanical Harvesting
Trend Value /%
2009 36.97 31.71
2010 38.82 34.35
2011 40.76 37.21
2012 42.80 40.31
2013 44.94 43.66
2014 47.18 47.30
2015
49.54 51.24
Table 10. Predicted Trend Value of Mechanical Sowing and Mechanical Harvesting
Mechanical Sowing
Trend Value /%
Year
4. Conclusions
Mechanical sowing level and mechanical harvesting level are important indexes that reflect
development level of China's field production mechanization. It is important to research on
its volatility and growth trend for promoting the development of mechanical sowing level
and mechanical harvesting level in a stable and high-speed way. HP filtering method is
adapted to analyse the fluctuations problems of mechanical sowing level and mechanical
harvesting level and based on this, GM(1,1) is used to predict the growth trend of
Mechanical sowing level and mechanical harvesting level. Results show that the mechanical
sowing level and mechanical harvesting level from 1973 to 2008 China was overall rising;
mechanical sowing level includes six fluctuation cycles and the average fluctuating interval
is 6 years, average amplitude is 10.44%; Mechanical harvesting level contains five
fluctuation cycles and the average fluctuating interval is 7.2 years, average amplitude is
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