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and '11th five-year plan' this law became perfect and improved, forming the best legal,
policies and the development environment during the whole history of China. Instead of
developing agricultural mechanization in isolation, China developed agricultural
mechanization together with developing the agricultural machinery industry, developed
advanced agricultural socialization service together with developing modern circulation
technology, and developed the agricultural machinery together with establishing
information construction.
Completing agricultural mechanization promotion system mainly include: agricultural
machinery production, study and research, spreading and coordination system, national
macro regulation and policy system, land scale management system, agricultural
mechanization investment, agricultural mechanization service team construction system,
financing system, agricultural machinery development of information network system,
agricultural machinery service of industrialization and marketization and socialized service
system, and so on. Thus, it is important to complete supporting system construction of
agricultural mechanization development in order to provide system guarantee for the
development of agricultural machinery (Yang etc, 2005).
3. The long-term trends and growth capacity prediction of the growth of field
production mechanization level
3.1 Research method
Using HP filter method, the field production mechanization level can be separated into two
parts: the value of trend and the value of fluctuation. Between them, the value of fluctuation
can be used as the basis for understanding mechanization development level and the value
of trend can be used as the basis for estimating and judging development of field production
mechanization level in the future. At present, in the area of forecasting the field production
mechanization level, the main methods we used including gray forecast method,
exponential smoothing, least-square method, comperz curve method and artificial neural
network technology, etc (Biondi etc, 1998; Zhang and Gao, 2009). When using the methods
mentioned above, most of the data was the value of time series about field production
mechanization level and it did not separate field production mechanization level into two
parts of the value of fluctuation and the value of trend. Because China field production
mechanization develops over time and also contains the characteristic of volatility,
considering the trend components and wave components, it is difficult to forecast. In this
article, the value of fluctuation was eliminated when forecasting long-term growth trend of
Chinese field production mechanization level; the value of trend was used and Grey
Forecasting Model was applied to predict the growth trend of Chinese field production
mechanization level.
Grey System Theory was developed by Professor Deng in the 1980s (Deng, 1989). This theory
focuses on studying uncertainty problems with a small number of samples or a system with
poor information. Grey forecasting model refers to the GM(1,1) based on the prediction. It is
not suitable for approximation complex nonlinear function, but can reflect overall
development trend very well. Grey prediction model is mainly used in prediction problems
with short time span, small data quantity and little fluctuation. Under the circumstances that
the data quantity is small, it can make the result much more accurate. The principle and
procedure of grey prediction model is shown as Follows (Deng, 1989; Wang etc, 2010):
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