The Volatility and Growth Trend of Field Production Mechanization Level in China - A Positive Analysis Based on Hodrick-Prescott Method - Efficient Decision Support Systems: Practice and Challenges from Current to Future - page 394

Cycle
serial
number

Sowing level Harvesting level

annual
range

start-stop
year

annual
range

Amplitude
(%)

start-stop year Amplitude(%)

1 1973-1976 4 14.46 1973-1980 8 22.90

2 1977-1980 4 17.87 1981-1988 8 20.08

3 1981-1985 5 6.83 1989-1992 4 5.64

4 1986-1991 6 11.37 1993-2000 8 11.78

5 1992-1998 7 5.55 2001-2008 8 5.74

6 1999-2008 10 6.56

Table 3. The results of Volatility features analysis of agricultural mechanization operation
level from 1973 to 2008 in China

average annual
range

cycle number Average amplitude (%)

Sowing level 6 6 10.44

Harvesting level 5 7.2 13.228

Table 4. The cycle of agricultural mechanization operation level

2.3 Consideration on promoting field mechanization level developing fast and
perfectly
2.3.1 Paying attention to factors that affect field mechanization level during different
periods
Through Table 3 and Table 4, the development cycle of China Mechanical Sowing Level and
Mechanical Harvesting Level during the year 1973 and 2008 exists the largest difference; this
is mainly because there are different development factors in different periods affecting field
mechanization level. Existing researches show that the main factors that affect the field
mechanization development are farm machinery management modes, rural economic
development conditions, rural residents' per capita income, policy system and so on. For
example, Lu etc (2008) applied the DEMATEL method to identify the factors that influence
the agricultural mechanization development and finally found out six factors as key ones,
namely, the farmer's income, farm machinery industry development level, farm machinery
products use cost, the transfer of rural surplus labor force, the labor price, and scale of
cultivated land management. Liu and Tian (2008) analyzed key factors that influenced
China farm machinery equipment level. Through this analysis, the most important factor is
the level of economic development level because it contributes the biggest share, and the
second is the land business scale, thus expanding land management scale moderately plays
an important role in promoting the level of agricultural equipment. The third is the planting
structure. The factors mentioned above are those causing the volatility of agricultural
mechanization, also the breakthrough of developing the agricultural mechanization.

2.3.2 Mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm of purchasing and using agricultural machinery
Mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm of purchasing and using agricultural machinery plays the
most fundamental role in the development of agricultural mechanization. From 1949 to