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variables (solar radiation, air temperature, soil temperature) and structural orchard features.
Body temperatures of all implemented developmental stages are approximated by
modelling habitat temperatures as close as possible (Table 1).
Soil temperature is used for post diapause development of Apple sawfly and Cherry fruit
fly pupae. Stem surface temperature is implemented for hibernating larvae and pupae of the
Codling moth and the Summer tortrix. Stem surface temperature is simulated from air
temperature and solar radiation on base of seasonal azimuth angle of the sun and light
extinction of the vegetation (Fig. 4; cf. Graf et al., 2001b). Inner stem temperature is also
simulated from air temperature and solar radiation and implemented for hibernating larvae
and pupae of the Smaller fruit tortrix. The remaining habitat temperatures are approximated
by air temperature (Table 1).
1.0
0.4
Wädenswil / 2002
Air temperature
0.8
Simulated
inner stem
temperature
(hatched)
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.4
Simulated
stem
temperature
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Day of the year
Fig. 5. Exemplified model validation in the Smaller fruit tortrix by simulated male
phenology (left axis) with pheromone flight trap data (right axis).
Smaller fruit tortrix exemplifies the high importance of applying the temperature
approximated to the habitat as good as possible. When comparing relative trap catches in
pheromone traps, simulations of relative phenology with habitat specific inner stem
temperature as applied in SOPRA (hatched in Fig. 5) shows a perfect match whereas stem
surface and air temperatures lead to high deviations of phenology forecasts (Fig. 5).
For validation, simulated emergence processes from hibernation sites were first compared
with emergence data from semi-field experiments. In a second step, implemented model
predictions were validated with independent field observations from several years for adult
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