Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Shale Gas Boom, Trade and
Environmental Policies: Global Economic
and Environmental Analyses in a
Multidisciplinary Modeling Framework
FARZAD TAHERIPOUR, WALLACE E. TYNER* AND KEMAL SARICA
ABSTRACT
While shale oil and gas are controversial in some quarters due to
perceived environmental risks, there is little doubt that the shale oil
and gas boom is having a major positive impact on the US economy.
But how large is it? We use a global general equilibrium economic
model to estimate the economic impacts of the shale oil and gas
technology on the US economy. We have made simulations with and
without expansion in shale resources (positive and negative shocks).
From 2008 through 2035 the US GDP on average would be 2.2% higher
than its 2007 level with the expansion in shale resources (positive
shock). Without the expansion in shale resources (negative shock) on
average the US GDP would be 1.3% lower than its 2007 level during the
same time period. That means that US GDP over the entire period of
2008-35 on average is projected to be 3.5% higher than it would have
been without the shale boom. The welfare impacts are also quite large.
On average, the welfare difference between the positive shock and the
negative shock is $473 billion per year over the period 2008-35. If gas
exports are restricted, the magnitude of the annual gains increases to
$487 billion.
