Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1 Global fossil fuel reserves.
Emissions from
proven reserves (Gt CO
2
)
Proven reserves
Oil
236 billion tonnes
724
Gas
187 trillion cubic metres
396
Coal
861 billion tonnes
1667
Total
2787
high level of risk for something that we have agreed we must avoid (by
comparison, we insure our homes for levels of risk of less than 1%) and a
temperature target above that advocated by over 100 countries.
However, proven global fossil fuel reserves, if burned, would emit 2800 Gt
CO
2
see Table 1).
19
(So burning the world's proven fossil fuel reserves would
emit more than three times the emissions associated with a safe global
carbon budget).
This does not take account of unconventional reserves. The International
Energy Agency (IEA) has developed a 'Golden Age of Gas' scenario.
20
This
assumes ''an accelerated global expansion of gas supply from un-
conventional resources'' so that ''demand for gas grows by more than 50% to
2035'' which ''puts CO
2
emissions on a long-term trajectory consistent with a
probable temperature rise of more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (1C) in the long
term, well above the widely accepted 2 1C target''. The IEA's Chief Economist,
Fatih Birol, has admitted ''we are not saying that it will be a golden age for
humanity - we are saying it will be a golden age for gas''.
21
2.1.2 Implications for the UK. If the world can only burn approximately a
third of its proven fossil fuel reserves, then what does this mean for indi-
vidual countries? Climate change is a global problem, requiring the co-
operation of all countries. The Framework Convention on Climate Change,
signed by 195 nations, states that ''The Parties should protect the climate
system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind,
on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differen-
tiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the de-
veloped country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change
and the adverse effects thereof''.
22
The issues of responsibility, fairness and justice run through international
climate negotiations. The global temperature rise is due to a combination of
both future and historic emissions: the cumulative build-up of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. Put simply, developed countries are over-
whelmingly responsible for historic emissions, and so developing countries
have a greater claim to remaining future emissions. As a result, splitting any
remaining global carbon budget by a country's share of the world population
would be equal, but not compatible with the Convention's or the subsequent
Copenhagen Accord's ''differentiated responsibilities'' - for it would be ig-
noring all historic responsibility.
