Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
prime agricultural lands, I summarise the reasoning and empirical
findings of a recent case study of the economics of competition and
coexistence of CSG and agriculture on prime lands. Uncertainties and
unknown unknowns are of such magnitude that they tend to dominate
the policy discourse.
1 Introduction and Context
The massive growth of coal seam gas (CSG) extraction in Australia in the last
15 years, with projected future expansion dwarfing that experienced thus far,
makes an interesting story in itself. Furthermore, the national and global
context really matters. The Australian CSG sector is participating in a great
global expansion of unconventional oil and gas extraction that, while
promising inexpensive energy to fuel the on-going economic growth in many
low- and middle-income countries, will exacerbate environmental threats
that are serious already. The way these forces play out in Australia is framed
by the particular structure of land and minerals rights that still reflect the
country's British-colonial heritage and Australia's view of itself as resource-
rich, capital-poor, and at the mercy of international markets and investors.
Furthermore, and no surprise, the policy and regulatory debates around CSG
invoke conflicting worldviews, and the conflicting fact-claims that arise
when facts are treated as malleable in support of a particular worldview.
I begin by elaborating a little on these three contextual matters, to set
the stage for discussion of the economic, environmental and policy issues
concerning CSG in Australia. This context-setting section is purposefully
broad, impressionistic and documented sparsely. Facts and reasoning cru-
cial to the subsequent discussion of CSG in Australia are documented more
completely in subsequent sections.
1
1.1 Global Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook
Recent analyses of the global energy outlook through 2030 project strong
growth in energy demand, most of it driven by growth in emerging econ-
omies.
2,3
Much of the additional production to meet these demands will
come from unconventional sources of oil and natural gas. Natural gas will be
the fastest-growing fossil fuel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be the
most rapidly growing segment of the gas market. Nevertheless, the market
share of fossil fuels as a group will diminish, even as the gas segment grows,
while renewables make an increasing but still relatively small contribution.
Thoughtful people will greet these prospects with an ambivalence not
easily resolved. Economic growth is to be welcomed, especially in emerging
economies, and among well-off countries Australia and Canada are enjoying
an energy export bonanza while the United States is anticipating an eco-
nomic boom driven by cheap and plentiful domestic oil and gas. But even for
these beneficiaries, the associated increase in projected global carbon
