Computing and society - A Practical Guide to Teaching Computing and ICT in the Secondary School - page 130

FUTURES STUDY
It is easy to ask your pupils, given the changes that have occurred in their lifetime
in computing and computers, to speculate about what is to come. As an exercise it
will, after all, give them licence to apply their imagination freely. However, what
they decide will lack legitimacy if it is not founded on some form of systematic
analysis. The notion of systematic analysis is central to Computational Thinking
( see Chapter 5 ) . No less an expert than Ken Olson, founder and chairman of Digital
Equipment Corporation (DEC), stated confidently, in 1967, that he could see no
reason why anyone would want a computer at home (Goldsborough, 2002). For
meaningful thinking to occur, some understanding of Futurology or Futures Study
is required by pupils. Those who study the future as an academic discipline
acknowledge that it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. They consign
this form of speculation to soothsayers and clairvoyants. Futurologists recognise
that there are alternative futures determined by a confluence of different economic,
social and technological forces. They make use of skill sets and knowledge from
fields such as biotechnology, engineering, information technology and physical
and social sciences, amongst others. The frameworks they develop for their
projections are based on observable trends over time, in a number of key areas or
spheres of interests. One of these key areas is the nature of work. American and
European working practices have changed radically as a result of various factors,
including the dawn of the computer. Less manual and more technologically driven
employment has emerged as the norm. In the past 60 years, the number of hours
that people are expected to work has almost halved. A career for life is no longer a
realistic expectation. People need to retrain more frequently. Earlier retirement and
an aging population also mean a reliance on the young to provide the majority of
the workforce (Frost, 2010). It raises questions about how people will fill their
leisure hours, and what is required to prepare them for managing change in
employment. Based on this evidence, Futurologists can legitimately assume that
some developments in Computing will be driven by these factors.
Task 8.4
Themes
Other key areas with a possible influence on the future are:
• Changing demographic
• Shifts in the global economy
• Movement of populations.
Research all of these spheres of influence and develop your findings into a lesson
designed to explore what may shape the future of Computing.
The computer itself is a tool now used increasingly by those seeking to explore
what may happen. Through Modelling and Simulation various futures can be
explored, although the maxim of GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out) applies ( see
Chapter 6 ) . There are those, the Determinists, who believe that we have no choice
in how the future is shaped. Free will, for Libertarians, is the critical factor. It is
important to expose pupils to the notion that there are opposing views on this
issue. Facer (cited in Edwards, 2012) and a number of the Futurologists adopt the