Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
24.8.1.1 Socio-Demographic Changes
The ways that urban areas will grow and change in the future will have important
bearing on when, how much, and where congestion will increase. Equally important
will be peoples
preferences for living and work locations. Evolving technological
breakthroughs in information, communications, and automation, will also in
'
fl
uence
traf
c congestion. However, the ability of transportation system improvements and
travel demand management programs to effectively relieve congestion in the future
will also depend on the ability of separate public agencies to work collaboratively
and to coordinate their transportation and land use decisions
—
a key requirement for
effective congestion relief [
3
] are:
In the next 30
50 years the US population will grow more slowly with a
corresponding reduction on VMT growth
-
American work force is growing older, more female and more diverse. Resulting
in a decrease in VMT per capita
The difference between cities and suburbs will be less distinguishable, resulting
in a decrease in VMT per capita, an increase in non-motorized trips and transit
trips
—
Mobile broadband will shape lifestyle choices
and possibly reduce car own-
ership, and VMT per capita for some trip purposes
Increase in environmental concerns by the younger generation could result in
lower car ownership, more transit, and non-motorized travel.
24.8.2 How Will the Transportation System Change
in the Future?
Technology has played an important role in the shape and size of cities and
metropolitan areas over the past 150 years. It has enabled cities to grow vertically
and horizontally. It has brought about electric traction, steel framed skyscrapers,
airplanes, automobiles, and big-box stores and it has also shaped the patterns of
traf
c congestion.
Future changes in communications technology could change life styles, travel
behavior and development patterns, and could provide some congestion relief.
Possibilities include better vehicle-to-vehicle communications, automated vehicles,
and real-time information. Perhaps the automated highways proposed by Norman
Bel Geddes in the Futurama Exhibit at the 1940 New York World
'
sFairwill
become a reality!?
