Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
2
What is a Probabilistic Process?
S
UMMARY
. Probability, according to the subjective conception
of it, measures the degree of belief we have that certain events
will occur; according to the objective conception, it is the result
of intrinsic properties of the phenomena which are then pro-
duced with a certain degree of frequency. Probability is not,
however, incompatible with either causality or reproducibility.
In the mathematical theory of probabilities, there is no differ-
ence in nature between determinism and probabilism; deter-
minism is just the limiting case of probabilism when the
probability of an event is equal to 1. In contrast, for essential-
ism, the specific and the accidental belong to two levels of real-
ity that are qualitatively different. Countless errors related to
using probability arise from confusing it with the essentialist
concept of accident. If these two notions are differentiated, the
gap that separates an intrinsically probabilistic theory, such as
Darwinism, from a deterministic theory with noise, such as self-
organisation, can be understood. Darwinism fully implies the
modern meaning of probability and not the essentialist notion
of accident. As far as it is concerned, order is relative, depend-
ing on the relationship of the organism to the environment.
Self-organisation reduces what is random to the level of acci-
dent. In this case, order is absolute. It is inherent in the organ-
ism, and depends on the specific relationships between its
components.
Before envisaging a theory of biological organisation based on prob-
abilistic laws, it is necessary to accurately define the concept of a
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