Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
PNW-ERC was the need to assume, in pursuing all three
of these purposes, that empirically-defined and model-
based relationships from the present held true in both past
and future landscapes. This projecting of present relation-
ships onto the past and future brings with it a source of
uncertainty that is different in kind and degree from the
positional, classification and generalisation errors that are
more familiar to those who work regularly with remotely
sensed representations of contemporary land use and land
cover (Branscomb, 2002). We are struck by the special
significance this assumption has in light of current con-
cerns regarding climate change, and the growing scientific
consensus that, in ecologically important ways, the future
maybeunlikethepast.
One of the most important outcomes of analyses of
future scenarios is the realisation that the reversal of large
scale environmental trends may require the development
of radically different policies and practices to maintain a
livable and more ecologically sound future. Most com-
munities want to maintain the status quo to the extent
possible to maintain social and economic stability. As an
example in the Pacific Northwest region of the United
States, the Northwest Forest Plan for federal forest lands
became one of the largest integrated land use and conser-
vation strategies in the world and was based on spatially
explicit development of nine alternative scenarios based
on remotely sensed information, ecological models, forest
yield models, and socioeconomic models (USDA, 1994).
The option selected by the United States government pro-
vided an intermediate level of protection of terrestrial and
aquatic biodiversity and a reduction of the programmed
timber harvest to less than 15% of the harvest level prior
to the Plan. The Plan created enormous controversy and
regional tension and continues to receive criticism from
industry, environmentalists, and regional governments.
The level of harvest in the first 10 years of the Northwest
Forest Plan was even lower than planned due to law-
suits, challenges in implementation with reduced federal
workers, and public controversy (Thomas et al., 2006).
Environmental assessments a decade after adopting the
plan found that old-growth forest extent was increas-
ing at a rate slightly greater than forecasted, declines in
Northern spotted owls were related to competition with
an invading owl species rather than effects of timber har-
vest, and extent of forest-harvest roads and fish passage
barriers was decreasing at expected rates (Bormann et al.,
2006). In the midst of ongoing debate about environ-
mentally and socially sound management of public lands,
the use of remote sensing, ecological landscape models,
and alternative future scenarios remain widely accepted
though contested tools for decision making in the region.
Even with the uncertainty and concerns noted above,
scientific projections of alternative future landscapes can
explore and test highly probable trends in the livability
of the landscape and the viability of important natural
resources and ecosystem services.
The Alternative Futures Project for the Willamette
River basin (Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Con-
sortium) (Baker et al., 2004, Hulse et al., 2002) has
been a less controversial application of remote sensing
within the context of alternative future scenarios that
has created new conservation and restoration oppor-
tunities. After the completion of the future alternative
analysis, much of the land use and land cover informa-
tion and related socioeconomic data was made available
to the public and decision makers on a digital library
website (http://willametteexplorer.info) to assist in local
planning and conservation actions. The research pro-
vided the basis for developing an agent-based model
of land use policies and ecological outcomes (Bolte
et al., 2007), which now is used by several communi-
ties and agencies in North America for planning, decision
making, and research. Regional planning projects for
transportation, water availability, and local land man-
agement have used the databases of the PNW-ERC in
their efforts. New studies of climate change and land
management are building on the foundation provided by
the landscape information and agent-based model (Steel
et al., 2004, Nelson et al., 2009). The Oregon Watershed
Enhancement Board adopted the spatial databases and
ecological recommendations of the PNW-ERC as a frame-
work for investing approximately $3 million annually to
target conservation and restoration actions along the
245-km mainstem of the Willamette River (http://www.
oregon.gov/OWEB/SIPWillamette.shtml). The value of
alternative future scenario assessments emerges more
from stimulating regional discussions about landscape
management options and creating a spatially explicit
framework for the evolving body of regional landscape
information than the certainty of its future projections.
Plausible and scientifically defensible information can
motivate communities to interactively develop innova-
tive, transformational alternatives by anticipating the
future rather than merely reacting to it. A recent review
of river restoration projects across the United States
concluded that an ecologically sound guiding vision is
the
essential characteristic of effective restoration plan-
ning (Palmer et al., 2005). For regional conservation and
restoration, guiding visions are equally important at the
scale of landscapes and river basins. Remotely sensed
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