Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Appendix: Estimation
Load.
Sample period: 2002:01
-
2013:08, i.e. a total of 140 monthly observations for
GB. Tables
A.1
and
A.2
.
Table A.1 OLS estimates of load seasonality
Coef
cient
t-ratio
Coef. Adj.
d(1)
3.43684
22.0155
3.7462
d(2)
1.59612
10.2244
1.7398
d(3)
3.37581
21.6246
3.6796
d(4)
1.47726
9.4630
−
1.6102
−
−
d(5)
−
2.3048
−
2.11448
−
13.5449
d(6)
2.2726
14.5577
−
2.4771
−
−
d(7)
2.83468
18.1583
3.0898
−
−
−
d(8)
2.73487
17.5189
2.9810
−
−
−
d(9)
−
2.27469
−
13.9508
−
2.4794
d(10)
0.254252
1.5593
0.2771
d(11)
1.47866
9.0687
1.6117
d(12)
3.69348
22.6523
4.0259
NoteCoef. Adj.
stands for seasonal estimates of load plus transmission losses
Table A.2 Regression analysis statistics
Mean-dependent var
S.D.-dependent var
−
0.011663
2.553337
Sum squared resid
S.E. of regression
37.43261
0.540779
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
0.958694
0.955145
F(12, 128)
P-value(F)
247.5705
2.43e-82
Log-likelihood
Akaike criterion
−
106.3144
236.6288
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn
271.9285
250.9735
Rho
Durbin-Watson
0.232423
2.416934
−
Average deseasonalised load over the last 24 sample months: 24.90418 TWh.
With transmission losses included: 27.14556 TWh. Load volatility: 0.1801.
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