Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
business model, and there is also general agreement that the centralised generation
and distribution model is going to lose its lead role; (3) however, more than 80 %
consider distributed generation as an opportunity rather than a threat; and (4) many
also expect an important role to be played by unconventional energy sources, such
as shale and oil gas. However, there is a general concern about their negative
impacts on society, and agreement on the bene
ts of renewable energy, which is
considered to be here to stay.
It is also realistic to expect these changes to be implemented more rapidly in
emerging economies with less well developed grids and high demands for energy.
OECD and other developed countries, by contrast, are organised around the cen-
tralised system of generation and distribution for energy, and will put up more
resistence to changing the model. Non economic barriers of all kinds to the
deployment of renewables and the change of model are to be expected (adminis-
trative, political, etc.). A case in point might be precisely Europe, where the current
crisis is being used as an argument to set up barriers to renewables, which supporters
of renewables would portray as just an excuse.
Although this
ection lies somewhat beyond the scope of this chapter, it
is worth noting that a world of energy abundance is likely to become a reality in two
or three decades, with fossil fuels having a more or less signi
nal re
cant share: in other
words, the energy problem might be solved. But it cannot be forgotten that
increasing demand for all resources, notably food and water in the near future, in an
inevitably
nite world, cannot be sustained forever. That is, even if the energy
problem is overcome it may be time to stop looking only to real growth, as mea-
sured by the standard system of national accounts, and broaden our perspective of
welfare to one of
'
prosperity
'
[
24
].
Appendix
A.1 The Meaning and Calculation of the LCOE Cost Measure
This appendix seeks to shed some light on the advantages, pitfalls, and precise
meaning of the electricity cost measure provided by the Levelised Cost of Energy,
or LCOE, sometimes also abbreviated to LCE. Standard cost measures are needed
that everybody can easily understand so that the relative costs of different tech-
nologies and investments can be communicated and assessed. The measure is
perfectly valid, once it is established precisely what it means and what it does not
mean. There are other accepted, standard measures, most notably the cost of the kW
for a given technology, that enable the initial capital investment required in a
speci
c project to be calculated. This is clearly also relevant, since the amount of
resources required to
nance a project, independently of its expected rate of return,
may be a serious hurdle if it is large (e.g. nuclear or large hydroelectric dams).
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