Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
altered social states (such as the popularity of a hula hoop, whether to take a
holiday in Tasmania and the offer of a job) (Miller & Page 2004). This theory
gives insight into phenomena such as formal and informal social norms, but
has not yet been applied to the emergence of revolts and revolutions.
Despite the lack of a supporting scientific literature, it is likely that many
other social phenomena, including revolts, religious cults and genocides
also illustrate key elements of complexity theory. It is plausible that revolts
are an emergent, balancing mechanism operating to reduce inequality
whenever it becomes excessive, triggered by motivation, opportunity, and a
reasonable shot of success. Charismatic leaders may help initiate revolts,
but self-organisation theory downplays the importance of individuals.
Instead it argues that in favourable conditions many moderately well-suited
individuals may catalyse effects made likely by causal factors of far more
weight than any one person.
The attacks on the Pentagon and the Twin Towers in September 2001 can
thus be viewed as an emergent phenomenon, arising through information
cascades, and occurring in response to the reality and - importantly - the
perception
of global inequality. Removing individual terrorist cells in
response is therefore unlikely to be successful, because it does nothing to
solve the root causes. The current 'War on Terror' may even generate more
terrorism over the medium term, including by diverting resources away
from the Millennium Development Goals and strategies to ameliorate global
climate change. These goals, announced soon before 11 September 2001,
relate to quantitative targets to improve many aspects of Third World devel-
opment, including education, health care and global nutrition (United
Nations Development Program 2001). They were intended to represent a
renewed assault on global inequality to herald the new century. Their
erosion will exacerbate global inequality. Climate change is also likely to
exacerbate inequality, particularly through its unequal impact upon food
production (McMichael & Butler, submitted).
Why is there a denial about limits?
Economists and evolutionary theorists know that resources are always lim-
ited. There is almost universal acknowledgement that the population size of
non-human species is restricted by a balance between resources, competitors
and predators. There is experimental evidence that non-human species
behave in ways that suggest a comprehension of limits. For example, experi-
menters manipulated the nest sizes of a bird called the collared flycatcher.
