Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
complete the process of health transition. However, if the HIV/AIDS pan-
demic intensifies, then life expectancies will decline in afflicted nations as
they have already done in many sub-Saharan African countries. Some com-
mentators point out that the recent emergence of HIV/AIDS may presage
the emergence of other new infectious diseases, as patterns of human living,
mobility and behaviour continue to change rapidly. We cannot know these
things in advance, but we should expect the microbial world to take advan-
tage of new opportunities that human cultural evolution provides.
On current trends, globally, the proportion of deaths from infectious dis-
eases is projected to halve from around one-third to one-sixth of total
deaths, whereas the proportion due to coronary heart diseases, stroke,
cancer and other non-communicable adult diseases will rise from around
one-half to three-quarters (WHO 2003a). The proportion of deaths from
injuries, too, will increase. Malnutrition and unsafe drinking water in the
less-developed countries, along with indoor air pollution from cooking and
heating in poor households, will remain major killers - even as cigarette
smoking, alcohol consumption and dietary excesses cause increasing rates of
adult disease and premature death.
The burgeoning global tobacco epidemic killed at least 4 million people
in 2000, and by 2020 it will be killing approximately 10 million people per
year - that is, about one in every three adult deaths. Diabetes type 2 (the
most prevalent type, with long-term adverse health consequences) currently
afflicts around 4 per cent of the world's adults, and is becoming more preva-
lent as urban populations everywhere get older and fatter. The current 120
million cases worldwide will approximately double over the coming decade.
Australia, with its relatively high prevalence of obesity and diabetes type 2
(AIHW 2002), faces a similar prospect where our approximately half-
million cases today will become a million cases by around 2015.
The widespread decline in traditional family and social supports, ampli-
fied by the urbanisation and increasing mobility of modern populations,
may contribute to mental depression becoming a major source of chronic
health impairment within several decades. The World Health Organization
has projected that mental depression will have become one of the several
major causes of poor health and disability by the year 2020 (WHO 2003a).
In this changeable modern world, surprising shifts in disease patterns
may become more frequent. In most countries, life expectancy has contin-
ued to rise over the past several decades. In Australia in 2001, life expectancy
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