Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
possible future patterns of fuel use as well as the uncertainties in the science.
The most optimistic view is that the temperature this century will increase
by another 1.4 degrees. That low forecast assumes that we will rapidly phase
out fossil fuels and hopes scientific uncertainties will work in our favour. A
pessimistic view gives an increase of about 2.4 degrees, even with a concerted
global campaign to reduce fuel use. More realistic assumptions about fuel
use lead to estimated temperature increases between 2 degrees and about
4.5, while the extreme inaction advocated by some could cause increases as
high as about 6 degrees.
Climate change is having many effects, not all of them negative. For
example, some plants have improved growth because of the combined
impact of more carbon dioxide, higher temperatures and changing rainfall
patterns. But the changes are having a wide range of effects on crops and on
natural systems. It is not sensible to ignore the problem. Just as other serious
environmental problems have been tackled at the international level, we
need a concerted global response to climate change, not a 'head in the sand'
approach. We should set a target of substantially reducing fossil fuel use, say
to 30 per cent of present levels by 2050. Cutting our emissions is our obliga-
tion to the world community. It will require policy measures from all levels
of government to encourage cleaner energy supply and much more efficient
conversion of energy into the services we need. The obvious way to fund the
transition is to systematically phase out the huge current subsidies of fossil
fuel supply and use (NIEIR 1996), transferring those public funds to the
expansion of renewable energy supply technologies and efficiency gains.
In structural terms, we should undertake systematic improvement of
energy standards for domestic and commercial buildings as well as vehicles
and appliances. Urban planning should emphasise making services accessi-
ble. At present it seems to concentrate on mobility, a feature needed only
when essential services are not readily accessible. Fuel use for transport has
to be reduced. Instead of allowing or even encouraging large four-wheel-
drive vehicles in urban areas, they should be phased out. There must be
incentives for small efficient vehicles, public transport, cycling and walking.
Solar hot water should be mandatory in buildings throughout Australia.
Human health and well-being
It is important that we recognise the link between healthy ecological systems
and human health. At its most basic, we rely on natural systems to provide the
essentials of life: oxygen, water and food. We also need those systems to
