Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
required (IPCC 2001a). Working Group I of the Third Assessment Report of
the IPCC (IPCC 2001b) gave six key messages concerning climate change:
•
observations of global climate give a collective picture of a warming
world
•
concentrations of 'greenhouse' gases and aerosols (dust) continue to
change the atmosphere
•
model simulations of the climate system give increased confidence in
climate predictions
•
observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due
mainly to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations
•
human influence will continue to change atmospheric composition
(in particular carbon dioxide) throughout the 21st century
•
global temperatures (and sea level) are projected to rise by 1.4-5.8°C
between 1990 and 2100.
More details of the evidence in support of these findings can be found in
Pearman and Hennessy (2003) and with particular reference to recent news-
paper accounts of greenhouse 'sceptics' in Manton (2003) and Pearman
et al.
(2003).
While the IPCC Report does consider climate change in relation to Aus-
tralia, a more recent review (Pittock 2003) summarises the observations of
climate change and its consequences specifically for Australia.
The strength of these conclusions has led national and regional govern-
ments around the world to establish policy relating to both the adaptations to
the anticipated change and to efforts to mitigate against the change through the
control of greenhouse gas emissions. Since the release of the IPCC Report, there
has also been a substantial shift in the degree of interest and commitment of the
private sector in terms of advancing IPCC policies on climate change.
Going beyond the IPCC report, scientists are now engaged with a
number of important issues including:
•
establishing greater certainty in terms of the scenarios of emissions
into the future as these represent at least half of our uncertainty
about future warming levels
•
translating the global warming projected from our climate models
into realistic regional changes that provide the basis for better
planning
