Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
you could produce the most complete model in the world, taking two years to simulate the
next 100 years, but you would have only one prediction of the future, based on only one
estimate of future emissions—which might be completely wrong. Individual models are
therefore run many times with different inputs to provide a range of changes in the future.
In fact, the latest IPCC science report has consulted the results of multiple runs from over
40 different AOGCMs to provide the basis for their predictions. Of course, as computer
processing power continues to increase, both the representation of coupled climate sys-
tems and the spatial scale will continue to improve.
12. Generic structure of a global climate model
Not only does the IPCC fifth assessment include some significant improvements in the
presentation of the physical processes of the climate system but also many of the models
had a small increase in spatial resolution. The models also focus on decadal forecasts to
help understand the internal variability of the climate to understand when the rate of
warming may slow down or speed up. There are also separate chapters dealing with near-
term climate up to 2050 and climate change after 2100.
