Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Perfect storm
The planetary boundaries concept provides a current view of the state of the global envir-
onment. However, with rapid economic development, the environment will come under in-
creasing pressure. For example, by 2030 global food and energy demand will have in-
creased by 50 per cent and water requirement will have increased by 30 per cent. This is
partly due to the rise in global population but most is caused by the rapid development of
lower income countries and a huge increase in consumption. Add to this the growing ef-
fects of climate change, which, as already discussed, directly threaten water and food se-
curity, and you have what Sir John Beddington (previous UK government chief scientific
adviser) calls the 'perfect storm' (see
Figure 40
).
We also have to consider the effect of a growing global population. According to UN pre-
dictions, global population will increase to nine billion people by 2050, when it will stabil-
ize and may even drop slightly. However, that means there will be a further two billion
people on the planet in the next 35 years. This is because as countries develop they go
through a demographic transition (see
Figure 41
). Demographic transition refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops
from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. However, infant and mother
mortality rates are quick to drop as an area obtains better sanitation and healthcare provi-
sion. A societal shift to lower birth rates can take a long time, and it is during this time of
transition that a large increase in population occurs. Globally, the highest increase in global
population was in the 1960s with growth of over 2 per cent per year due to the roll out of
mass immunization programmes and the eradication of small pox. The most effective solu-
tion to high birth rates has been the education of women up to at least secondary school
level, as they then take control of their own fertility. There are huge disparities globally in
population growth, with regions like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India set to double their
population in the next 50 years, while some very developed countries now have shrinking
populations. In general the greatest population increases are occurring in the least deve-
loped countries. It is this growth in population in the poorest and most vulnerable countries
that will make the impacts of climate change worse.
