Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
are least able to adapt. Also, the results of all these studies are heavily dependent on the
assumed trade models and market forces used, as, unfortunately, agricultural production in
the world has very little to do with feeding the world's population and much more to do
with trade and economics. This is why the European Union has stockpiles of food, while
many underdeveloped countries export cash crops (such as sugar, cocoa, coffee, tea, and
rubber) but cannot adequately feed their own populations. A classic example is the West
African state of Benin, where cotton farmers can obtain cotton yields four to eight times
per hectare greater than their US competitors in Texas. However, because the USA subsid-
izes its farmers, this means that US cotton is cheaper than that coming from Benin. Cur-
rently, US cotton farmers receive over $4 billion in subsidies, almost twice the total GDP
of Benin. In 2002 Brazil filed a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against
the USA for unfair subsidises and distortion of trade. They won their case in 2005,
however, seven years later, the USA is still discussing what changes should be made to
their farming subsidies. So even if climate change makes Texan cotton yields even lower,
it still does not change the biased market forces still illegally in operation.
So markets can reinforce the difference between agricultural impacts in developed and de-
veloping countries and, depending on the trade model used, agricultural exporters may
gain in monetary terms even though the supplies fall, because when a product becomes
scarce, the price rises. The other completely unknown factor is the extent to which a coun-
try's agriculture can be adapted. For example, in climate change models it is assumed that
production levels in developing countries will fall to a greater degree than those in deve-
loped countries because their estimated capability to adapt is less than that of developed
countries. But this is just another assumption that has no analogue in the past, and as these
effects on agriculture will occur over the next century, many developing countries may
catch up with the developed world in terms of adaptability.
One example of the real regional problems that climate change could cause is the case of
coffee growing in Uganda. Here, the total area suitable for growing Robusta coffee would
be dramatically reduced, to 10 per cent of the present area, by a temperature increase of
2°C. Only higher areas of land would remain suitable for coffee growing, the rest would
become too hot. But no one can tell whether these remaining areas would make more or
less money for the country because if other coffee growing areas around the world are
similarly affected, the price of coffee beans will increase due to scarcity. This demon-
strates the vulnerability to the effects of global warming of many developing countries,
whose economies often rely heavily on one or two agricultural products, as it is very diffi-
cult to predict the changes that global warming will cause in terms of crop yield and its
cash equivalent. Hence one major adaptation to global warming should be the broadening
