Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Climate change is likely to have the greatest impact in countries with a high ratio of relat-
ive use to available supply. Regions with abundant water supplies will get more than they
want with increased flooding. As suggested above, computer models predict much heavier
rains and thus major flood problems for Europe, whilst, paradoxically, countries that cur-
rently have little water (e.g. those relying on desalination) may be relatively unaffected. It
will be countries in between, which have no history or infrastructure for dealing with wa-
ter shortages, that will be the most affected. In central Asia, North Africa, and southern
Africa, there will be even less rainfall and water quality will become increasingly de-
graded through higher temperatures and pollutant run-off. Add to this the predicted in-
creased year-to-year variability in rainfall, and droughts will become more common.
Hence it is those countries that have been identified as most at risk which need to start
planning now to conserve their water supplies and/or deal with the increased risks of
flooding, because it is the lack of infrastructure to deal with drought and floods rather than
the lack or abundance of water which causes the threat to human health.
Human health is threatened by the lack of access to affordable basic food. Future changes
in temperatures, precipitation, and length of growing season will all affect the production
of food and other agricultural goods. Extreme weather events must also be considered. For
example the 2010 Russian heat wave led to severe droughts that reduced grain production
so much that Russia banned its export to ensure there was enough for its own country.
With an increasingly globalized economy very few countries are self-sufficient in basic
food and hence food imports are very important. However access to basic food is also
about cost, and recent increases in oil prices, increased meat demand, and the increased
production of biofuels has contributed to an increase of 80 per cent in food prices since
2004. The increase in meat eating in developing countries such as India and China is an
important forcing factor because beef cattle require 8 kg of grain or meal for every kg of
flesh they produce. The cost of food is also influenced by the world commodity markets.
In 2008‒9 there was a 60 per cent rise in the price of food and in 2011‒12 there was a 40
per cent jump in price (see
Figure 24
). The New England Institute of Complex Study's re-
search into these price rises shows that the underlying trend in rising prices is due to the
increased price of oil, increased overall demand in oil, biofuel production, and natural dis-
asters, but that the price spikes were due to food speculation on the global markets. So the
inability of many people to afford basic food, leading to their malnutrition and starva-
tion,can be linked directly to the speculation on food prices on the global markets in Lon-
don, New York, and Tokyo.
