Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Extreme events and society's coping range
The single biggest problem with climate change is our inability to predict the future. Hu-
manity can live, survive, and even flourish in extreme climates from the Arctic to the Saha-
ra, but problems arise when the predictable extremes of local climate are exceeded. For ex-
ample, heat waves, storms, droughts, and floods in one region may be considered fairly
normal weather in another. This is because each society has a coping range, a range of
weather with which it can deal. Figure 21 shows the theoretical effect of combining the so-
cietal coping range with climate change. In our present climate, the coping range encom-
passes nearly all the variation in weather with maybe only one or two extreme events.
These could be one-in-200-year events that surpass the ability of that society to copy with
them. As the climate moves gently to its new average, if the coping range stays the same
then many more extreme events will occur. Hence a one-in-200-year event may become a
one-in-50-year event. The good news is that the societal coping range is flexible and can
change to cope with the shifting baseline and the more frequent extreme events; as long as
there is strong climate science to provide clear guidance on what sort of changes are going
to occur. The speed with which the societal coping range can vary depends on what aspect
of society is being affected. So adaptation of the individual's behaviour can be extremely
quick, while building major infrastructure can take decades to complete. One of the biggest
challenges of climate change is to build flexible and resilient societies that are able to adapt
to a changing future.
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