Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Summary
Modelling future climate change is about understanding the fundamental physical pro-
cesses of the climate system. Four new emission scenarios were produced for the 2013
IPCC Science report using a much wider set of input to the socioeconomic models includ-
ing population, land use, energy intensity, energy use, and regional differentiated develop-
ment. One of these emissions pathways (RCP2.6) was developed to indicate to policy
makers what could be achieved in terms of climate change if all possible mitigation
strategies were employed as soon as possible. Over 40 climate models were used in devel-
oping the IPCC projections and the quantification of uncertainty, providing a huge 'weight
of evidence'. Using the three main realistic carbon emissions pathways over the next 85
years, the climate models suggest the global mean surface temperature could rise by
between 2.8°C and 5.4°C by 2100. However it must remembered that global temperatures
will stop changing once we get to year 2100.
Figure 19
showshow temperatures could con-
tinue to rise way beyond the levels of this century depending on the chosen emission path-
ways. Using the three main realistic carbon emissions pathways the models also predict an
increase in global mean sea level of between 52 cm and 98 cm by 2100.
