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Table 7.7
Hypotheses in play prior to 1905
Result
Hypothesis:
Apparatus
effect
(temperature,
vibration)
Ether drag
+
Lorenz-Fitzgerald
contraction applied
to apparatus
Ether drag
(no apparatus
effects)
Velocity of light
is constant
(some apparatus
effects)
No displacement
0.45
0.1 (error)
0.1 (error)
0.9
Small displacement
0.45
0.9
0.1 (error)
0.1 (error)
Predicted displace-
ment (may indicate
experimental error)
0.10
0.0
0.8
0.0
Table 7.8
The situation after 1905
Result
Hypothesis:
Apparatus
effect
(temperature,
vibration)
Ether drag
+
Lorenz-
Fitzgerald
contraction
applied
to apparatus
Ether drag
(no apparatus
effects)
No ether drag:
velocity of light
is constant
No displacement
(Helmholtz)
0.45
0.1
0.1
0.9
Small displacement
(error)
0.45
0.9
0.1
0.1
Predicted
displacement
(Michelson, Morley,
Lorenz-Fitzgerald
0.10
0.0
0.8
0.0
Fitzgerald's suggestion is included in Table
7.7
along with relativistic alternatives
mooted in a textbook by Föppl in 1894 (Holton
1973b
, pp. 208-212) and by Poincare
in 1904 (Poincare
1905
). For those who accepted the argument of Einstein's 1905
paper, the null results confirmed his postulate of special relativity. Yet, the search
for ether-drag effects continued long after 1905. By the 1930s D. C. Miller finally
concluded, that Helmholtz had probably been right all along (Swenson
1970
,
1972
).
Rejecting the explanation provided by Einstein's relativity postulate of 1905, he
continued to believe that the experiments confirmed some conjunction of Helmholtz's
surmise and the Lorenz-Fitzgerald contraction hypothesis (see Table
7.8
).
This method of representation introduces each hypothetical possibility in histor-
ical sequence and shows how its probability varies for each scientist, according to
each scientist's knowledge of experimental results and of another scientist' beliefs.
To tell the full story we would need a set of matrices showing the probability of each
set of outcomes of each set of experiments for each set of hypotheses, for each of the
