The Policy SET Model - Wind Power: Politics and Policy - page 73

an inluential factor can initiate a series of cascading reverberations that
result in widespread systematic change. For example, a robust feed-in tarif
(a policy variable) attracts investment in wind power systems (an economic
variable), which ampliies the scale and scope of development, engendering
community concerns over the aesthetic degradation of landscapes (a social
variable), prompting wind system manufacturers to develop techniques to
minimize the aesthetic encumbrance of wind systems (a technological bar-
rier). hese interdependencies are not only nation-speciic; the interrela-
tionships are also temporally dynamic—they change over time.
he complexities within the Political SET model highlights the limitations
of this framework for historical analysis (past), formative or summative
policy evaluation (present), or predictive application (future). For historical
analysis, the descriptive accuracy of the Political SET model depends on the
accuracy of the analyst in identifying and weighing the impact of inluential
variables. his also holds true for formative or summative policy evaluation;
however, in formative or summative policy evaluation, using the Political
SET model is further complicated by the need to identify comparatively
more efective policies. his of course depends on the accuracy with which
an analyst can predict the market response, assuming alternative policies
were applied. All of these limitations also serve as caveats when using the
Political SET model for predictive application; however, yet another level of
complexity emerges when trying to apply this framework to predictive anal-
ysis because one must try to anticipate the evolution of inluential variables
and how these changes will inluence the rest of the variables within the
conines of the model.
he Political SET model cannot be considered to be a diagnostic tool like
the diagnostic equipment for analyzing the performance of an automobile
engine. Rather, the value of the Political SET model is that it promotes a
formalized, guided analysis of complex adaptive markets, which if under-
taken in a comprehensive manner will produce enhanced understanding of
the landscape that inluences development patterns. It forces analysts to
provide empirically veriiable support for conclusions that are being made.
Employing the Political SET model in this way is akin to an art critic standing
in front of a Picasso painting and employing agreed-upon evaluative criteria
for abstract art to describe and critique the subject under study. Although
others may disagree with the conclusions of such a critique or even on the
criteria used for analysis, one should not be able to ind fault with qual-
ity of the analysis—it should be both comprehensive and well-supported.
It is with this spirit in mind that the Political SET model has been applied
for analyzing wind power developments policy in the six case study nations
introduced in this topic.