Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 9.1
JAPAN'S RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD
TARGETS 2003-2014 (IN TWH)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7.32
7.66
8.00
8.34
8.67
9.27
10.33
12.20
13.15
14.10
15.05
16.00
Source
: IEA. 2009. Global Renewable Energy: Policies and Measures: International Energy Agency.
only 119% higher than the RPS quota for 2003, representing a targeted
annual market growth rate of 8%. Industry groups argued that these low
quotas were necessary to avoid adversely impacting the competitiveness of
Japanese industry. However, one early study into the inancial impact of
the RPS repudiated this contention. he study found that the RPS program
would increase the cost of electricity produced by ¥0.1/kWh (approximately
US$0.001 per kWh).
41
If the indings of this study are valid, given that the
cost of natural gas has tripled in Japan between 2002 and 2012,
42
an RPS of
ten times the magnitude would have been viable without adversely impact-
ing industrial competitiveness. In short, it was apparent from the onset that
the RPS quota was too low and the targeted pace of development was too
slow to entice the level of competition necessary to build a market.
In 2004, the T&D network was further liberalized. Power producers
and suppliers were permitted to sell electricity directly to consumers that
required more than 500 kW of power capacity. he following year, the capac-
ity limit was lowered to 50 kW. his basically gave wind power providers
access to approximately 60% of total electricity demand.
43
However, given
the stochastic nature of wind power lows, in order to fully tap into these
new market opportunities, wind power providers would have to either store
the energy captured or combine wind systems with peak-load technologies
in order to attenuate the power luctuations. Storage adds to the cost, while
twinning wind systems with peak load technologies gives rise to added com-
plexities. Neither case represents a trouble-free solution.
Despite criticisms of the RPS, this policy somewhat quickened the pace of
wind power development. By the end of 2011 installed wind power capacity
had grown from 464 MW, prior to the initiation of the RPS, to over 2557
MW. At a capacity factor of 25%, this amounts to an expansion of about 4.6
TWh in annual wind power generation capacity. Assuming that all the wind
power added during this period beneitted from the RPS, this suggests that
wind power accounted for approximately 79% of the RPS quota between
2003 and 2011. he comparative competitive success of wind power under
this program is largely because geothermal project developers have faced
well-organized opposition from Japan's onsen industry and mini-hydro
