Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
similar tactics in January 2007 by curtailing delivery of oil to Belarus amidst
purchase price negotiations. 39
Like oil and coal, natural gas is also a inite resource. Currently, the global
reserves-to-production ratio of natural gas is estimated at 63 to 66 years. 40
Although history has demonstrated that fossil fuel reserves tend to grow as
exploration activities expand, it is becoming more evident that the projected
demand boom for natural gas will signiicantly outpace the expansion of sup-
ply. 41 In short, like the prices of coal and oil, an upward escalation in the price
of natural gas is likely. It is for this reason that the IEA predicts that natural
gas prices will rise to US$11.36 per million British thermal units (Mbtu) in
the United States by 2030. Compared to the 2000 price level of US$4.79, the
IEA forecast represents a 137% increase (in constant 2008 US$). 42
While the costs of fossil fuels are on a decidedly upward trajectory, the
costs of most mainstream alternative energy technologies continue to
decline as higher volumes of installed capacity lead to improved economies
of scale and technological innovations improve generation eiciency. he
end result is a convergence of generation costs for the various technolo-
gies. Figure 1.8, taken from a joint study sponsored by the US Department
of Energy, the US Environmental Protection Agency, the World Resources
Institute, SEPA Green Power Partnership, and the Center for Resource
Solutions, provides levelized cost estimates for electricity generation by
various technologies. 43 Levelized costs refer to aggregated construction,
fuel, operation, and maintenance costs that have been spread out over the
lifetime of the technology.
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Figure 1.8 . Levelized Cost of New Power Generation Technologies in 2008
Source : US Department of Energy (2010).
Search WWH ::




Custom Search