Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.1
GLOBAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY SOURCE
Avg. Annual
Growth Rate
(Data in Terawatt Hours)
2007
2030
Coal
8216
15,259
2.7
Oil
1117
665
-2.2
Gas
4126
7058
2.4
Nuclear
2719
3667
1.3
Hydro
3078
4680
1.8
Biomass and waste
259
839
5.2
Wind
173
1535
9.9
Geothermal
62
173
4.6
Solar
5
402
21.2
Tide and wave
1
13
14.6
TOTAL
19,756
34,291
2.4
Source
: EIA, World Energy Outlook (2008).
6% of total electricity generation. On the other hand, coal-ired electricity
will deliver 44.5% of the total electricity produced in 2030, up from 41.5%
in 2007. hese projected trends are in spite of a consensus that climate
change presents an immediate, perilous threat to humanity,
19
and in spite
of expectations that costs of fossil fuels will rise while the costs of wind
power and other renewable power will continue to decline.
20
Although it
should be emphasized that these projections were done prior to the nuclear
disaster in Fukushima, Japan in March 2011, there is no guarantee that a
diminished rate of nuclear power expansion will result in gains for renew-
able technologies over fossil fuel technologies. In fact, there are strong
indications that a decline in nuclear power capacity will be of a greater
beneit to fossil fuel technologies.
hese trends do not bode well for prospects of energy-related CO
2
emission
mitigation. As Figure 1.4 demonstrates, the IEA expects total energy-related
CO
2
emissions to double, from 20,941 million tons in 1990 to 40,225 mil-
lion tons in 2030. his increase will be driven by a 140% increase in CO
2
emissions associated with electricity generation, with massive increases in
emissions from coal-ired and gas-ired electricity generation (Figure 1.4).
At this rate of increase in CO
2
emissions, the IEA asserts that humanity
is on path that will see GHG concentrations in excess of 1,000 parts per
million (ppm) of CO
2
equivalent (eq) GHG by 2150
21
—a level that would
result in global warming in excess of 6°C, sea level rise in excess of 3 meters
and unpredictable ecological disaster.
22
he IEA and IPCC both acknowl-
edge that even holding atmospheric CO
2
concentrations between 450-490
