Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
for China, general public support for transitioning away from pollutive elec-
tricity generation technologies will favor wind power over nuclear power as
the dominant emergent utility-scale technology.
From a technological perspective, the scale of wind power expansion in
China will likely be inluenced to the greatest extent by technological inroads
made in commercializing CCS technology and political inroads made in con-
vincing the general public that nuclear power is a safe technology at high lev-
els of penetration. As mentioned earlier, the Xian hermal Power Research
Institute has already developed a CCS system that is purportedly capable of
recovering more than 85% of CO
2
emissions;
98
however, progressing from
CO
2
capture capabilities to commercial-scale capture and storage represents
technological progress that has yet to be proven in any nation. Regarding
nuclear power, the disaster in Fukushima, Japan has heightened public sen-
sitivities toward the use of nuclear power, both in China and around the
Asian region. However, there is no indication that what transpired in Japan
has altered the perspective of Chinese policymakers in regard to long-term
plans to progressively ramp-up installed nuclear power capacity. herefore,
current indications suggest that nuclear power will continue to challenge
wind power for the title of fastest growing alternative technology in China.
Nevertheless, barring any currently unanticipated groundbreaking develop-
ments in CCS research, one can expect a continued ampliication of support
for wind power, provided that Chinese power grids continue to improve.
Power grid coverage and resilience represents a vexing bottleneck. he
current grid fortiication projects outlined in this chapter will enable
enhanced wind power contributions to a certain extent; however, China's
grid infrastructure is for the most part still rudimentary and will require sig-
niicant technological upgrading if wind power in China is to have a chance
of surpassing the 30% penetration level.
Although the outlook for continued wind power development in China
appears rosy, there are two geopolitical concerns that could signiicantly sup-
press wind power difusion in the short run—continued global economic
stagnation and the collapse of the Kyoto Protocol. here are indications that
the global economic slowdown that began in 2007 is beginning to have a cor-
rosive efect on Chinese iscal health.
99
If domestic expansion continues to
outpace export growth, the ability of the CPC to inance the necessary power
grid infrastructure fortiication projects that are needed to support further
wind power development will be weakened. Consequently, if the government
is forced to rein in its domestic expenditures in order to maintain iscal health,
all domestic infrastructure projects—including wind power developments—
face enhanced scrutiny and diminished growth prospects. If the Kyoto
Protocol collapses and there is no other international agreement to replace it,
