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would catalyze a widespread upgrade of existing turbines, although like the
1992 subsidies, the impact of this new turbine replacement scheme exhibited
a time lag and would not inluence the pace of development until 1996. Yet
there were signs that the 1992 subsidies were having some efect: 53 MW of
wind power capacity was added in 1994, expanding national capacity by 11%.
Over the subsequent two-year period—1995 and 1996—the catalytic
efect of the new government wind power policies became clear. In 1995,
a record 79 MW of wind power capacity was added. In 1996, an astonish-
ing 214 MW of installed capacity was added, surpassing the cumulative total
for the four previous years. As an illustration of the success of the turbine
replacement scheme, the 416 wind turbines that were constructed in 1996
generated the same amount of electricity as the 3000 wind turbines con-
structed prior to 1990. 62 By this stage the pace of wind power development
was brisk enough that the government was emboldened to reiterate its com-
mitment to achieving 1500 MW of installed capacity by 2005 and announce
a longer-term goal of meeting 50% of Denmark's electricity needs through
wind power by 2030, targeting 4000 MW of ofshore wind power and 1500
MW of onshore power—a threefold expansion from 1996 levels. 63
In subsequent years, market momentum continued to build; from 1997
to 1999, installed wind power capacity expanded by 309 MW, 315 MW, and
315 MW, respectively. By the end of 1999, national wind power genera-
tion capacity stood at 1753 MW (including 10 MW in ofshore wind power
capacity), surpassing the 2000-target of 1500 MW that was originally set in
1990. Moreover, thanks to a new agreement between the government and
Denmark's utilities to install 750 MW ofshore wind turbines before 2008,
the dawn of a new era for ofshore wind development appeared imminent. 64
In 1999, two new pro-wind policies were unveiled. First, given the success
of the 1994 turbine replacement scheme, the government was prompted to
announce an updated subsidy that mirrored the general trend toward replac-
ing development subsidies with production subsidies. he replacement
scheme guaranteed a payment of €0.081 for the irst 12,000 full-load hours
of production, which equated to approximately ive years of operation. 65
his scheme allowed existing turbines of less than 100 kW to be replaced by
turbines of up to three times the discarded capacity, while turbines between
100 kW and 1500 kW could be replaced by twice the capacity until the end
of 2003. 66 he ofer was so attractive that most small wind power systems
that were not upgraded between 1994 and 1999 were upgraded in the irst
two years of the new millennium. Second, the government signaled inten-
tions to bolster wind power difusion by announcing a new short-term
target of achieving 20% contribution to electricity generation from renew-
able sources by the end of 2003—a lofty goal given that the contribution
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