Geology Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 15.4.
Decrease of bearing capacity (%) of frozen soil around pile foundations set in
permafrost because of an increase in the mean annual air temperature at Yakutsk, Siberia.
Increase of soil temperature
Decrease of bearing capacity
°C
(i) Buildings
(ii) Frozen soil under pipelines and power lines
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
7
9
1.0
15
19
1.5
23
31
2.0
50
63
Source: L. Khrustalov, 1999 (personal communication); quoted in Weller and Lange (1999).
100 000 persons, living in drab fi ve-story apartment buildings. Built between 1950 and
1990, many of these buildings are now predicted to fail because of a decrease in bearing
capacity of the frozen soil into which the concrete piles are set (Table 15.4). This will
result from permafrost warming in the upper few meters. Unverifi ed statistics (see Table
14.1) indicate the number of major buildings that are predicted to fail by 2030. For
example, in Vorkuta, the prediction is that 50-60% of all major building constructed
between 1950 and 1999 will have failed by 2030. In the large cities of Tiksi and Yakutsk,
the entire infrastructure may be lost by 2030 unless remedial measures are undertaken
shortly. In many other cities in the Russian Arctic, building deformations are numerous.
At Norilsk, approximately 250 of the 5-12-story apartment buildings are damaged and
100 need repair (Makarov et al., 2000; Weller and Lange, 1999). Additional problems in
all these cities are frost-jacking, thaw subsidence around buildings, deterioration of water
and sewage facilities, and a general lack of maintenance due to fi scal concerns and poor
management.
15.5. CONCLUSIONS
Global climate warming will become one of the major environmental issues of the 21st
century. The periglacial environments, which comprise approximately 20-25% of the
Earth's land surface (see Chapter 1), will certainly be affected. There will be both positive
and detrimental effects. A widespread warming of permafrost is already underway.
Because of the positive feedbacks associated with the release of greenhouse gases as per-
mafrost degrades, and because of the albedo effects associated with reduced snow and
sea-ice covers, the periglacial environment will be more affected than most and will be a
major contributor to enhanced climate warming.
ADVANCED READING
Anisimov, O., Fitzharris, B., Hagen, J. O., Jeffries, R., Marchant, H., Nelson, F. E., Prowse, T.,
Vaughan, D. G. (2001). Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In:
Climate Change: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability, the Contribution of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
, Third Assessment Review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
pp. 801-840.
