Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
uncertainty. When decisions are complex and surrounded by uncertainty, and par-
ticularly when the issue is contentious, decision analysis helps us to lay out the
steps taken in reaching a particular decision in a transparent way. This allows
underlying assumptions to be exposed and challenged, and should help to ensure
buy-in by all those involved.
Decision analysis is highly developed in fisheries science, and is now widely used to
assess management options (Peterman (2004) and McAllister
et al
. (1999) both give
excellent reviews). When used in fisheries science, it tends to involve sophisticated
modelling, increasingly using Bayesian statistics. Cutting-edge decision analysis uses
models and data to their fullest to give a robust understanding of system dynamics and
the uncertainties involved. However, it is technically difficult and time-consuming,
and it can be extremely hard to have full stakeholder involvement in the process when
the modelling is this complex. Decision-making can still be significantly improved if
the basic steps are followed, however, even if complex modelling is not possible.
The key advantages of this approach are that uncertainty is
explicitly included
at each step and that it separates value judgements about the desirability of differ-
ent outcomes from people's understanding about the state of nature. It is impor-
tant to make this distinction when there is a range of viewpoints and potential
conflict about the approach to management. If disagreements about what the ideal
outcome is are confounded with disagreements about how actions lead to out-
comes, it is very difficult to reach common ground.
7.5.2.1 Framing the problem
The first thing to do is to ensure that the whole management process involves the
right people. Generally, being inclusive is a good strategy, although practicality dic-
tates that there is a limit to the number of people who can be involved. The best way
to approach this is to carry out a stakeholder analysis (Grimble 1998). Who are the
resource users, who has an interest in managing the resource? Who should be involved
in gathering and interpreting the data on which the decisions will be made? Who
should be involved in using this information to weigh up the options and make the
final decisions? How can these groups be represented in the management activities?
Once the people involved have been identified, they can develop concrete out-
comes and measures of success, as discussed in Section 7.3. Next, they can list the
possibilities for management action that they wish to explore, perhaps based on the
options discussed in Chapter 6, but also including the two extreme options of full
protection and no action (business as usual).
7.5.2.2 Gathering evidence
The first step is to develop a conceptual framework for understanding system
dynamics, of which Figure 7.5 is a simplified example.
We need to obtain and analyse data about each of the components of the system,
using the techniques outlined in Chapters 2 and 3 and in the monitoring section
of this chapter. This information can then be used to develop a model of system
dynamics.
