Developing predictive models - Conservation and Sustainable Use - page 192

Vortex: http://www.vortex9.org/vortex.html The original PVA modelling package, quite a
strong emphasis on genetic effects and small populations.
Forestry software list: http://dmoz.org/Business/Agriculture_and_Forestry/Forestry/Software/
Some relevant fisheries software, including ParFish: http://www.fmsp.org.uk/Software.htm
Bio-economic spatial modelling for Marine Protected Areas: http://www.ifremer.fr/isis-
fish/objectivesen.php
ULM free software for structured population models: http://www.snv.jussieu. fr/Bio/ulm/
ulm.html
BUGS, including WinBUGS and links to other sites on Bayesian methods: http://www.mrc-
bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/welcome.shtml
Agent-based modelling software:
CORMAS (specifically targetted at natural resources): http://cormas.cirad.fr/indexeng.htm
SWARM (more generic, and the page has comparisons of several software packages):
http://www.swarm.org/wiki/ABM_Resources
Bayesian Network software:
Netica: www.norsys.com
Hugin: www.hugin.com
Simple online tutorial: http://www.dcs.qmw.ac.uk/%7Enorman/BBNs/BBNs.htm
Comparison of packages: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~murphyk/Bayes/bnsoft.html
5.6.2 Textbooks
Akcakaya, H.R., Burgman, M., Kindvall, O., Sjogren-Gulve, P., Hatfield, J., and McCarthy, M.
(2004). Species Conservation and Management: Case Studies . Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Useful compendium of matrix population models with a CD of the models themselves, for
use with RAMAS software.
Binmore, K. (2007). Playing for Real: Game Theory . Oxford University Press, Oxford. Binmore's
1991 textbook Fun and Games was a very good introduction to game theory. This is an
updated version, about to come out.
Caswell, H. (2001). Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis and Interpretation , Second
Edition. Sinauer Sunderland, MA. The bible for age/stage-structured modellers—but it is
mathematically heavy, and doesn't have the relevant examples of Getz and Haight.
Cowell, R.G., Dawid, A.P., Lauritzen, S.L., and Spiegelhalter, D.J. (1999). Probabilistic Networks
and Expert Systems . Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg, New York. Very well-regarded
textbook on Bayesian Networks.
Donovan, T.M., and Welden. C.W. (2002). Spreadsheet Exercises in Conservation Biology and
Landscape Ecology . Sinauer Associates Sunderland, MA. A step-by-step guide to implement-
ing basic models in Excel.
Getz, W.M., and Haight, R.G. (1989). Population Harvesting: Demographic Models of Fish,
Forest, and Animal Resources . Monographs in Population Biology 27, Princeton University
Press, New York. Our favourite book on the theory behind harvesting models. Particularly
good on age/stage-structured models, and lots of relevant examples.
Haddon, M. (2001). Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries . Chapman and Hall Boca
Raton, Florida. Useful introduction to fisheries modelling techniques, with a good section on
bootstrapping.
Hilborn, R., and Mangel, M. (1997). The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data .
Monographs in Population Biology 28, Princeton University Press, New York. A must-have
for all who wish to carry out quantitative analyses based on empirical data. A landmark work.