Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
by. They are an integral part of the process of adaptive management, as discussed in
Section 7.5. Conservationists have been very reluctant to use models in real-world
management in the same way that fisheries scientists have, and so there are very
few examples outside fisheries science where a true interaction between modelling
and management can be demonstrated (see Box 7.8 for a rare exception). This
may be due to the non-quantitative background of many conservationists, the
less severe financial consequences of decisions about hunting quotas for species
of conservation concern, and the perceived complexity and site-specific nature of
human-wildlife interactions at the subsistence level. There is also caution about
the defensibility of producing models of human behaviour when profit is not the
main motive for hunting behaviour. However, we have hopefully convinced you
that models are an integral component of management, and that the mystique
surrounding modelling as a skill is unwarranted.
However, it's worth sounding a note of caution. If you have been thorough in
your model conceptualisation and exploration phases, you will have a very good
understanding of its behaviour and limitations, and you will be able to express
these limitations through your sensitivity analyses and scenario explorations.
But the most sophisticated model is still only as good as its inputs—
Garbage
In Garbage Out
. Our experience is that when models are used to address policy
questions, it is the modeller who is the most sceptical of the recommendations
arising, while non-modellers who feel that model results support their viewpoint
tend to seize on the simple headline figures and ignore the many pages of caveats
that surround them. Be very careful, therefore, about how you present
your results. Tools from
decision analysis
can be very helpful in presenting
results in a way that fairly represents the uncertainty that surrounds them
(Section 7.5).
Finally, it can be very easy to get caught up in the virtual world, and think of the
model as an end in itself, rather than a tool for analysis. It can be fascinating to
explore the mathematical behaviour of models, and some parts of theoretical
ecology are very far removed from empirical reality. However, conservation is an
applied subject in which we are trying to implement practical solutions in the real
world. So it is particularly important to have a very strong sense of the relationship
between your model and reality, and to be clear how it is going to contribute to
improving practical action on the ground.
Off-the-shelf packages:
RAMAS:
http://www.ramas.com/software.htm.
Particularly strong on spatially explicit models,
also has a stage-structured model.
