Environmental Engineering Reference
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happened in the past is no help since all of the models
are tuned to agree with what has already happened.
Their predictions of the future in any of the scenarios
are what differ, and it will take about
more years
to see which of them best agrees with what happens in
nature.
The models will continue to evolve and improve as
information comes in. The current rapid melting of the
Arctic ice was unexpected, for example. Why it is
happening will be something better understood by the
time of the next assessment report. The movement of
the Greenland glaciers seems to have been misunder-
stood. Their movement accelerated in
and
,
but then slowed back to the more normal pace in
.
That too will be looked at in depth for the next report.
Personally, I think there is not enough biology in the
analysis. Part of the transport of carbon into the deep
ocean is governed by the growth and death of plankton
which absorb CO
as they grow and transport it down
when they die. The effect of changing temperature on the
growth of plants needs more work too because plants also
contribute to sequestering carbon in the soil. The models
will continue to evolve, and each cycle should be a better
approximation to the real world than the last. It is import-
ant that there continue to be many independent centers
working on the problem.
A few more words about uncertainty are needed. The
range for the temperature rise given in Table
does not
span all the possibilities. It is only the most likely range.
The chance that the temperature will go up by an amount
outside the range is about
.
.
However, if it is outside the range it is more likely to
% according to the AR
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