Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table
Projected global average surface warming at the
end of the twenty-
.
rst century
Case
Global average temperature changes
relative to
-
Best estimate
Range
F
C
F
C
A
(AR
)
.
.
.
-
.
.
-
.
RPC
.
(AR
)
.
.
.
-
.
.
-
.
twentieth century (heavy black dotted line) and the aver-
age of the model predictions for three of the scenarios for
the twenty-
rst century. The scenario A
is closest to
“
(continuing on with the same mix of
fuel as we use today as energy use increases), and also
quite close to the AR
business as usual
”
scenario called RPC
.
.
The Physical Science Basis presents what is new
in the prediction of the effects on the global environment
of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. The changes
from AR
The AR
come from improvements in the models used
to calculate what will happen as more and more green-
house gases are added to our environment. The Physical
Science Basis report is very heavy going and is for the
experts. Its Summary for Policy Makers is not light reading
either, but is intended to be more accessible to the non-
expert. Usually the
final overall Synthesis Report is the
most readable, but it will not be available until near the
end of
.
shows the best estimate of the temperature
rise and the range of the rise for scenarios A
Table
.
from AR
and RPC
.
from AR
. I chose these two to compare
