Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
needed
ppm
scenario would need the OECD members alone, includ-
ing the United States, to reduce emissions by
Gt emission reduction needed for the
%of
projected emissions. I don
it think they can or will do it
while the rest of the world does nothing. There is no way
the Kyoto Protocol
'
s Annex B countries (the only ones
required to meet mandatory goals under Kyoto-
'
),
roughly the OECD members plus the Russian Feder-
ation, will be willing to meet it on their own either.
According to the OECD analysis,
% of the increase
in emissions between now and
will come from
China, India, and the Middle East, and a way has to be
found to involve them.
Table
fifteen
emitter countries (I have grouped the EU as one entity
because they act as one in emission control). The data are
from
.
shows data for the world and the top
(the most rapid growth in emissions has been
in China which passed the United States many years ago
as the largest emitter). These
fifteen countries are respon-
sible for more than
% of total, global greenhouse-gas
emissions. If there is going to be any serious global effort
to reduce emissions this group is the place to begin. I took
the top
fifteen so that the group would include the
developing nations who had not yet entered the rapid
development phase that China and India are already in.
The issue is not only what the big emitters are willing to
do, but what the next round of big emitters would
nd
acceptable. The poorest nations do not need to be
included yet.
Starting with the nations responsible for the largest
part of the problem is the route taken by the only emis-
sion control
agreement
that has been universally
