Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
over with an agreement for another meeting in
to
come up with a new proposal to come into effect in
.
The big questions will be the period covered by the next
Protocol, the greenhouse gas reduction targets, and the
role of the developing nations, particularly China and
India which are the two with the most rapidly increasing
emissions levels. I will simply assume the duration is to
and the target is the level required then if the world
is to be on the emissions trajectory required to stabilize
the atmosphere at
ppm (twice the preindustrial level).
There will be a great deal of discussion about these two
things, but the most noise will be about the role of the
developing countries. The tale told before Kyoto-
(the
industrialized countries caused the problem and they
should bear the burden of cleaning things up) will no
longer do. By the year
the business-as-usual trajec-
tory for TPES will have the developing countries contrib-
uting nearly as much greenhouse gas to the atmosphere in
this century as the industrialized ones will have contrib-
uted in the
. We are all in this
together and if there is no agreement on participation by
these countries we cannot
years from
to
fix this problem.
for my target because that is
about the year that most analyses give as the time when
emissions have to peak if we are to stabilize at
I picked the year
ppm.
Some analyses say
, some say
, but most show an
emissions trajectory that is fairly
flat in the
to
time frame.
Figure
s
estimates of CO
emissions from the energy sector for
their reference scenario (similar to business as usual, but
not exactly the same) and for stabilizing the atmosphere at
.
shows the International Energy Agency
'
