Introduction - Beyond Smoke and Mirrors - page 14

first edition I discussed what our
energy sources were in

In Part II of the

. I looked at projections of
demand in this century based on population growth, eco-
nomic growth, and the normal expectation of energy
ef

cacy improvements. I showed the results from experts
that calculated that, based on normal scenarios, energy
demand by the end of this century would go up to four
times what it had been in the year , and what that

would mean to emissions in what is called a business-as-
usual (BAU) scenario where the additional energy comes
simply from increased use of the fuels we are using now.
Viewed from all three perspectives - Economy, Secur-

ity, and Environment BAU is not an option. For

example, today the world uses

-

million barrels of oil
per day. The BAU scenario would require

million

barrels per day in . There may be that much oil, but

it is certain that there is not that much oil at today

is prices.
In the BAU scenario all the known coal reserves would be
gone by

'

find, but it
will be much harder to get and therefore more expensive.
Using that much coal will have much greater negative
effects on health, unless, of course, someone invents
“

. There is probably more coal to

an empty phrase used by the industry today.
At the end of Part II , I gave a grade to each of the
alternative energy sources: Winners, Losers, and Maybes.
Today the grades are different from what they were in
the

clean coal, ”

first edition. There have been movements between
the categories and not all the movement has been in the
direction ful lling the hopes of the advocates of particular

solutions.
Part III discussed policy as it was then. Nothing has
worked as initially hoped, and the recent Warsaw