Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
time, emissions have actually been declining because of
changes in the energy supply and improved ef
ciency.
The US projection for TPES growth has dropped from
a growth rate of
.
% per year (prediction of
)toa
prediction of
.
% per year (prediction of
). While it
does not sound like a great deal, looking
years into the
future it translates to a
% reduction in primary energy
demand compared with the prediction of
(if it does
not change again).
The situation in most of the developed world is similar
to that in the United States and to the predictions of
IIASA shown in Figure
. Energy demand will rise very
slowly and, because of ef
.
ciency improvements and
changes in economies from production toward services,
emissions can fall. How fast emissions will fall is a policy
question that is discussed in the next chapters.
The developing world is the key to
first controlling
emissions and then to reducing them. China and India
are the two fastest-growing counties. Both have had eco-
nomic growth rates far above any in the rest of the world,
but only China has begun to get serious about emissions
control, and that is more because of air pollution than
greenhouse gases or fears over climate change. However,
in China they go together, since the largest source of
energy, coal, is the worst polluter and greenhouse gas
emitter of the fossil fuels. Their current
five-year plan
has a goal of reducing energy intensity by
% and they
seem to be on track to reach that goal. Of course, the plan
also has a GDP growth target of
%to
% so emis-
sions will still go up by about
%. For the longer term,
what happens in China, India, and other countries of the
developing world is the key issue in stabilizing the global
Search WWH ::




Custom Search