Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
usual is not an option on economic and national security
grounds as well as on the grounds of climate change.
We are in a race to reduce global emissions of green-
house gases while energy demand is going up fast, driven by
two things: a projected
% increase in population, and an
increase in world per capita income. Continuing on our
present course, world primary energy demand is expected
to double by
, mainly
because of what is happening in the developing world.
The richer countries have to be responsible for the
development of the affordable energy sources that can
be used to grow the economies of poorer countries while
at the same time reducing the emissions that threaten the
planet with rising temperatures. It is not possible to
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions far enough without
action in the developing world even with zero emissions
from the industrialized nations. Advanced energy tech-
nologies must be usable and affordable by all.
Several goals are being discussed, and I will focus on the
one getting the most attention: returning emissions to the
and double again by
level by
or
, and going on to achieve a
reduction to
. This is
what is called for by those who want the temperature rise
limited to
%below
emissions by
F). It is possible for the developed
countries to reduce emissions that much, but it is extremely
unlikely that the developing countries can do so as well
while continuing rapid economic development. I will come
back to this issue in the section of the topic on policy.
Figure
C(
.
which shows
emissions versus time if we are to stabilize at some par-
ticular greenhouse-gas concentration. We are already
above the
.
is a reproduction of
Figure
.
ppm line; IPCC
'
sAR
puts CO
at
