Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
The most recent estimate predicts a world population of
about
billion (middle fertility scenario) by the end of
the century.
Returning to economic growth, the IIASA-WEC eco-
nomic growth scenario closest to what has been happening
is their scenario A (high growth). The long-term growth
rates assumed are about
.
% for the industrialized world
and nearly twice that for the developing world. The meth-
odology divides the world into three groups. The
.
“
Indus-
trialized
countries are the United States, Canada,
Western Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand;
“
”
Central
and Eastern Europe plus all the States coming from the
break-up of the Soviet Union;
Reforming
”
countries are the old Soviet Block
-
countries are
all the rest and are dominated by China and India. Under
their assumptions the developing world passes the indus-
trialized world in total GDP around the year
“
Developing
”
.
Total
world GDP is projected to grow nine times between the
years
. Combining the GDP growth with
the projected decline in energy intensity gives a fourfold
increase in primary energy demand.
and
Market Exchange and PPP
GDP numbers can be given using market exchange rates
(what you get from a bank when changing one currency into
another), or in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP; how
much it costs to buy a de
ned basket of goods in different
countries). For example, in China a few years ago a bank
The growth rates are after in
ation and the evaluation is in terms of
GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP).
