Taking up Arms Against this Sea of Troubles - Beyond Smoke and Mirrors - page 82

about s energy consumption. These

countries will begin to have an impact on energy demand
and climate only when their economies grow enough to
make a difference. Until then, they should be left to
increase the well-being of their citizens in the most effect-
ive way they can without regard to global climate issues.
Of course they have to be careful about their local envir-
onment, but mandated greenhouse gas reductions should
not be required of them.
Predicting future energy demand is done by predicting
two other things, economic output (gross domestic prod-
uct or GDP) and a quantity called energy intensity (Ei, i , the
amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP).
Multiply the two together and you get

% of the world '

the energy

required to generate that GDP.

Energy ¼ GDP (Energy/GDP) ¼ GDP E i

For those readers that remember their algebra this
looks like an identity: cancel GDP with the GDP in Ei i
and it only says energy equals energy. It does indeed, but
it allows the use of numbers that can be estimated with
reasonable con dence for a region, a country, or the

world in the prediction of future energy demand. Esti-
mates of both GDP growth and changes in energy inten-
sity are based on historic trends, and with lots of past data
there is more con dence in predicting the future by

using them rather than just guessing what energy growth
will be.
Energy intensity is a measure of ef ciency and of the

product mix in a particular economy. Energy intensity
usually drops as an economy matures, largely because of
a shift from manufacturing to services (it takes much less