Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
6.10 KONRAD/NinJo/NowCastMIX - DWD
There are several tools in the German Weather Service and include KONRAD (Lang et al,
2001), Mesocyclone detection (Hengstebeck et al, 2011), AutoWARN, EPM (editing,
prediction, monitoring), Cellviews (Joe et al, 2003). All of these are integrated into the Ninjo
system (Koppert et al, 2004). KONRAD was developed as a research prototype and uses a
variable elevation angle PPI reflectivity product for the identification and warning potential
of cells. The 10 minute volume scan product is used for further classification. The cells are
displayed as abstractions and only a >28dBZ contour is displayed in the end user product
(Fig. 16). Of all the systems discussed, it is the only truly automated system where the
products go directly out to the end-user without human oversight. However, it targets
sophisticated end-users such as emergency authorities, county administrators, fire
departments and the military and not the public. One could argue that these are guidance
products for external versus internal decision-makers for planning but not warning service.
So the “cry wolf” syndrome is not a significant issue. This does demonstrate the potential
use of fully authomated products.
Fig. 16. An example of the abstraction from reflectivity to symbolic representation of
thunderstorms from the KONRAD system. It is the only system described in the contribution
that is totally automated. It is directed to “sophisticated users” for planning purposes.
The AutoWARN system in NinJo integrates various meteorological data and products in a
warning decision support process, generating real-time warning proposals for assessment
and possible modification by the duty forecasters. These warnings finally issued by the
forecaster are then exported to a system generating textual and graphical warning products
for dissemination to customers. On very short, nowcasting timescales, several systems are
continuously monitored. These include the radar-based storm-cell identification and
tracking methods, KONRAD and CellMOS; 3D radar volume scans yielding vertically
integrated liquid water (VIL) composites; precise lightning strike locations; the precipitation
prediction system, RadVOR-OP as well as synoptic reports and the latest high resolution
numerical analysis and forecast data.
