Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Fig. 14. (a) The detected thunderstorm is the ellipse oriented south-west to north-east. A
motion to the south east is shown. The contours and shading show the probability that the
thunderstorm will advect or propagate into those locations. The probabilities were verified
for a season of storms around Sydney and Beijing, with excellent reliability, with a Brier skill
score of between 0.36 and 0.44 with respect to an advected threat area forecast. (b) An
example of a prototype TIFS strike probability product. Three cells are identified as A, B and
C and represented as ellipses. The tracks of B and C are indicted by the partial ellipses and
the colours indicate the strike probability, marked as E and F and appear consistent. The
track for cell A is marked as D1 and appears anomalous. D2 is the track that the analyst has
modified to produce the final strike probability map (c).
Fig. 15. This figure shows a nowcast of the reflectivity and lightning from NoCAWS. The
plus signs are nowcasts of lightning strikes.
