Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Although there was a weak preference for the idea that making biofuels would be good for the
local economy, neither farm nor forest owners thought that the removal of waste material on their
property would fit with their current land management strategies. Similarly, there was only mar-
ginal support for the idea that a nearby cellulosic ethanol plant to which they could sell waste mate-
rial would be economically beneficial.
To ensure that respondents were familiar with the subject of climate change, the first two ques-
tions of the survey were “I have heard the term climate change” and “I have heard the term global
warming.” Of the 670 respondents, 635 (93%) answered either “strongly agree” or “somewhat agree”
to one of these two questions. The subset of farm owners and forestland owners were similarly aware
of the terms. It is interesting to note that although there was a high degree of disagreement with the
statement “climate change is
not
going to happen,” 97 respondents expressed uncertainty (“don't
know”) about the statement “Burning fossils is one of the primary causes of climate change.” This
indicates that although there is agreement that climate change is happening, the public is unsure of
the causes.
12.5 the Future
The future proliferation of bioenergy crops will be highly dependent upon government policies
supporting (or hindering) biofuels and the economics of both biofuels and the oil products they are
market substitutes for, namely gasoline and diesel. In the near term, corn-based ethanol will reach
a saturation point in the United States because of the limited quantity of additional available corn
and the cap imposed by the RFS, although it is not known exactly what this saturation point is. As
of September 2011, an additional 1 × 10
9
L/year of ethanol capacity was under construction in the
United States (RFA 2011). However, the recent global economic downturn has had a toll. VeraSun
Energy, formerly the largest commercial ethanol producer in the United States, entered bankruptcy
in 2008 because of the credit crisis and falling oil prices (HGCA 2009). On the other hand, Brazil
is in a flexible position because of its ability to produce relatively cheap ethanol and the availability
of a significant amount of land that can be dedicated to additional sugarcane production.
As for cellulosic ethanol, the 2007 Energy Security and Independence Act, combined with
decreasing industry costs as indicated by the number of commercial plants being built, indicate
that it will become a major competitor to gasoline. World cellulosic ethanol production capacity
is expected to be at least 1 × 10
9
L/year by 2012, primarily in the United States (Solomon et al.
2009). However, this is by no means assured because cellulosic ethanol is still an emerging market.
Additionally, high fragmentation of land ownership, especially in the Midwest, will pose a barrier
to the availability of feedstock (e.g., Potter-Witter 2005). Ethanol has to be shipped by road, rail,
or barge because ethanol attracts water and transportation in oil pipelines can contaminate the
pipeline. A major technological breakthrough in transportation infrastructure came in 2008 when
ethanol was successfully shipped through a gasoline pipeline in Florida (UPI 2008). This should
allow for a reduction in transportation costs and could allow for (cellulosic) ethanol production in
regions with large amounts of feedstock but low population densities, such as federal lands in the
North American West.
The EU is expected to maintain its strong growth in biodiesel production, with 3 × 10
9
L/year additional capacity under construction, although there has been some recent retrenchment,
especially in Germany. Argentina is poised to be one of the world's largest biodiesel producers.
Currently, the country is the world's third-largest producer of soy oil and the largest exporter; half of
all cultivated land in Argentina is soy. There is currently approximately 3 × 10
9
L/year of biodiesel
production capacity, with an additional 2 × 10
9
L/year of biodiesel production under construction
there. Almost all of the biodiesel is expected to be exported (Mathews and Goldsztein 2009; REN21
2009). Biodiesel production is expanding in Brazil as well, and Asian markets continue to grow.
Thus, although the near-term future of bioenergy crops is mixed, the long-term prospects remain
bright.
